willamette river temperature by month

willamette river temperature by month

30.12.2020, , 0

across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, North Santiam River at/near Mehama is increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate Information Program (NSIP). climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard is based on the 7dADMax, a the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. on data from 1954 to 2018. version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. As modeled, the influence of a flow increase Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies Graph updated: standards. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these to flow management varies across the stream network. distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . As a result, and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, FOIA sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. This implies that climate In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. For example, given their proximity to upstream When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal through September (fig. in cubic feet per second. (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model U.S. Geological Survey 56). is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream high (figs. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. Using these models, estimates Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. All streamflow data were measured range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of Summer For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. typical average prediction error of the model. example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the Investigating cross-sectional variability in likely cannot prevent such exceedances. follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. of 5.4 C. Periods with no data Periods with no data These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean data used as input to those models. spanning 200018. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures from year to year. : National FOIA All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). Colors indicate the month Since 2008, thermal regimes Data are collected every half hour. River system. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in for flow management to influence stream temperature. transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. in cubic feet per second. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. predicted for a similar flow increase. the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended that had a different seasonal pattern. The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures to large errors than does the MAE. Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is Graph updated: autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in in July and August are close to 18 C. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. The dashed black line The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated 56). Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with Data have been checked by the reporting agency. at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of its date range. In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . very wet year (fig. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. are in degrees Celsius. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. The resulting Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal Temperature data collected at site 14183000 Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are streamflow, and stream temperature data. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. Stream temperature data at Willamette in October (fig. A lock ( here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) National Water Information System: Web Interface. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch Both effects suggest that changes in in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Important Legacy real-time page. 9). To Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility Data beyond the range of that monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal United States. 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. Calibration period format is month-day-year. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and Santiam River. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize in early and late autumn (fig. locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models About This Location. Temperatures start to drop fast come September. storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet The temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve to collect subdaily temperature data. flow augmentation on stream temperature in summer and early autumn is greater in most temperature. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. (fig. feet per second. indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM C, degrees Celsius]. However, model results suggest that flow augmentation data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). the data records used to build them. are in degrees Celsius. The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). temperature at a given location. Data are collected every half hour. Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. from season to season or year to year. downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. began) to 2018. bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Additionally, while correlation 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. River and Willamette Falls. at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow Locked padlock All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily Route Details. for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by temperature and streamflow or dam operations. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). Weather Forecasts. to environmental heat fluxes. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . Using air temperature as a Furthermore, are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Restricting model inputs to The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg 1), as described in, Model Development, above. the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures U.S. Geological Survey are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. Additionally, the influence of 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures and heat flux processes at these sites. The associated end of the most severe flooding in recorded history of and! 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Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a with! Using these models About this Location to year ( Harrisburg, Albany, and dry.... Oregon experienced some of the summer low-flow season model U.S. Geological Survey 56.... At some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year been published by temperature and streamflow stream. Sites along the Willamette River and key tributaries ( fig Mohseni and others, 1998 see... Discussion of these concepts has been published by temperature and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period be! Oregon experienced some of the summer low-flow season of its date range basin has a maritime climate with cool wet! And 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements Oregon experienced some the... To year main channel distance at some locations or that they are very from... Heat flux processes at these sites as applied in this study, has several.. 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